What's up?
I actually did make a Day 13 blog. The thing is, I was two sheets to the wind, pickled, wasted, piss-eyed drunk, loaded, hammered and gooned up. Out of my mind. So in the morning I deleted it.
I got paid yesterday. A friend wanted to go to the Casino so I made the mistake of playing. Honestly, there's never a good reason to throw money down at the Casino. Some say it's a tax for being stupid. And when you go in there and waste a days worth of money you should realize start realizing that it's not the place to be. But some people just can't leave, they always come back because maybe they'll win "this time". I'll say now that I'm not going back in there and wasting more than ten dollars. The more you play the more you lose money: that's just how it works and that's how it has to work.
Going to the Casino also makes you think about people's conception of "luck" and of "probability". This friend that I went to the Casino with told me that there is a secret method of winning Roulette. The "method" says that if you want to bet on, for example, the first 12, second 12, or third 12, then your bet should be changed based on what the last number was. My friend read this incorrect "method" online. What it say is that if a number between 1-12 is rolled, then you should not bet on the first 12 next spin, because it is unlikely that it will be 1-12 again. This is a fault of logic. The fact is, humans are terrible at understanding probability. Each time they spin the wheel, the chances of getting any number are ALWAYS the same as the last time they spun the wheel. The knowledge of what the number was previously does not change anything.
This is, in some ways, the opposite of a classic probability problem known as The Monty Hall Problem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem). In this problem, you are given three doors to choose from: one of the doors has a car behind it, and the other two have goats behind them. You choose one door, but you do not know what is behind it. Then, the host opens up one of the two doors that you haven't chosen, and reveals a goat. So now you have the option to switch your original choice, and choose the remaining door, or to stay with your current choice and open up the door you originally picked. What should you do? Most people think that there is a 50% chance that you will pick a door with a car behind it. But the truth is that you have 2/3 likelihood that when you switch you will pick a car. This is because you have previous knowledge about the two doors. You know that originally there were 2 goats, and so originally you had 2/3 a chance of picking a goat from the get-go. And everytime you switch with a goat you get a car. Which means you have a 2/3 chance of getting a car when you switch. Don't believe me? Look it up online: or, even better, do trials for yourself, and see what happens.
Anyway, I didn't really talk about my day, but I have to go now. My grandfather is turning 80 today and I have to set up for a party we're having tonight.Do do da loo do
Swag
Ryan Hartigan
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